Friday, October 13, 2017

Episode #217-Why Aren't There Jewish Bars???

Mocking vs. emulating Cappy
Just don't fuck up.
How black names hurt black people.
Do Jewish Bars EXIST???
"Clarey's Land of Canaan"
Leftists Eating Their Own


In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!

Direct MP3 here.

RSS feed here.

Another Reason to Enjoy the Decline

When your tippy top super secret spy agencies use "admin" and "user1" as passwords.

Don't know about you, but I'm pouring myself a drink and saying "fuck it."

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Why Crypto-Currencies are the Next Dotcom Bubble

A couple months ago I was hired by a person who shall remain anonymous.  He was instrumental in the launching of a reasonably notable crypto-currency and wanted to know what its value was.  It was the classic meeting of the worlds of economics and technology where the tech gurus wanted to know precisely what was the value of the monster they created, so they enlist the help of clueless schmoes economists like me to do so.

This presented a problem to me because unlike say, a bond, a stock, or a rental property, currencies (crypto or not) do not produce income.  They are a tool of economic exchange, a store of value, and naturally forming and evolving economic phenomenon since humans existed.  Silver bars do not poop out little silver coins and gold coins do breed to make little gold coins.  And since all currencies produce nothing, there is no means by which to value them.  The value of currencies are therefore determined by their rarity relative to one another, whether they have intrinsic value (precious metals), utilitarian/commodity value (silver is used in electronics), purchasing power (the Big Mac Index) and the amorphous, whimsical, and impossible-to-measure trust and faith of the entire world's people.

So what I employed was a technique used to value traditional currencies where a stable currency (such as gold or the US dollar) was used as a base and the historical exchange rate or "ratio" between that base currency and the one I was attempting to value established an average.  This average would then allow me to determine whether a currency was overvalued or undervalued relative to the stable base currency and we would have a rough estimate as to what a currency should be "worth."

For example, historically (when allowed to trade freely) the gold to silver ratio has been 47 to 1.  During my lifetime the British Pound would fetch 1.8 US Dollars.  And the Euro vs. Dollar exchange rate has been around 1.2.  These exchange rates have been volatile, but you can ever so roughly determine a currency to be undervalued or overvalued depending on how far away from these averages they trade.  But instead of using gold or the US dollar as the base, I used Bitcoin as the "base currency" by which all other cryptocurrencies would be valued.

This presented some obvious drawbacks.

Bitcoin, the eldest of all cryptocurrencies, isn't even 10 years old, providing little if any kind of historical performance by which a stable, long term average base can be established.  Also, for the short 9 years it's been in existence, its price performance has been HORRENDOUSLY volatile as such a revolutionary idea as a cryptocurrency would be.  Further complicating matters is that new cryptocurrencies are younger than bitcoin and all cryptocurrencies tend to move in concert with one another.  This has relegated the pricing of various cryptocurrencies merely a theoretical exercise and me admitting to the client that all I could provide was a methodology that might work in 50 years time from now, but was completely worthless today.

In short, it was impossible to value a cryptocurrency today.

But my research had an unintentional side benefit.  And that was a look into the INSANE underworld of crypto-currencies.  A look that immediately flashed me back to 1998 because the parallels between the cryptocurrency market of today and the Dotcom market of 1998 are eerily similar.

First, both cryptocurrencies and dotcoms were revolutionary advances in technology that promised to revolutionize the economy.  They were so new and society had yet to figure out what role they would play in the future economy and world, their values were impossible to assess. But we did know they were going to play a major and upheaving role in the future economy.  There was profit to be made, but we didn't know precisely where, or how.

Second, there was a flood of them.  Dotcom Mania had so captured the nation companies who never produced a profit in their entire existence were getting hundreds of millions in financing from venture capitalists.  IPO's were celebrated when there was no profits to celebrate.  And if you simply put an "e" or an "i" in front of your company's name, your market cap would septuple overnight.  It was so bad you had Gen X'ers acting like millennials - achieving nothing, while being highly rewarded for it.

This easy money merely attracted more money as everybody thought they would transfer the entire world economy from bricks and mortar to digital in a mere year.  And soon every industry, sector, and facet of the economy was going online.  If I recall my dotcom history correctly, there was even a fish company that decided to sell shoes online.  Yes, it was that insane.

However, the same insanity has infected the minds of the cryptocurrency market.

I'm no economist, but as far as my logic takes me, the world should only need ONE cryptocurrency.  Maybe three or four in order to account for the fact people would want to diversify out of being reliant upon just ONE cryptocurrency.  But when I did the research for my approaching 4 months ago...there were....(drum roll please)

967 cryptocurrencies!

But wait, it gets better!  In those four short months the number of cryptocurrencies has increased by 200!

Do not tell me this isn't Dotcom II all over again.

Third, and perhaps more eerie is how the cryptocurrency market has morphed from what should be a currency market to its own culture or society.  And even the words "culture" or "society" understates this morphing.  More like "religion" or "cult."

In doing my research I happened upon discussion boards, comments sections, facebook pages, and all other forms of social and not-so-social media where its participants were so far removed from the fundamentals of currency economics, it was now their daily personal hobby they'd obsess about because (as far as I can tell and I hate to sound so harsh) they really had nothing going on in their lives.

"Did you hear they're coming out with a new cryptocurrency with DOUBLE encryption???"
"I like BloggerCoin because they're backing up their currency with the intrinsic value of blog posts!"
"I heard about BloggerCoin, but I like FARTCOIN better!  They're capturing people's farts so you can exchange your cryptocoin for human methane!"

In other words, people were discussing, talking, and buying cryptocurrencies not because of any economic fundamental value, but more like trading cards or Beanie Babies.  It was novelty, a hobby, a culture unto itself that had nothing to do with intrinsic value.  This too was the case during Dotcom while CNBC and the various "professionals" they had on were talking about Krispy Kreme donuts, upcoming IPO's and ill-understood technologies that had ne'er been tethered to profits or reality.

Which perhaps leads to the eeriest similarity of them all - ICO's and technospeak.

While the Dotcom bubble heralded IPO's (Initial Public Offerings) of the latest dotcom company that traded dog manure for Styrofoam widgets, this same "crypto-cult-culture" heralds "ICO's" (Initial Coin Offerings) with the same fanfare AND complete lack of profitability, intrinsic value, and sanity.

Never mind there's 1100 currencies out there already.
Never mind these coins don't produce dividends, rent, interest, or income.
Never mind the world really only needs 3-4 cryptocurrencies.

Nope, you got yourself an ICO!  Let's uncork the champagne while cashing in our 401k's to buy FECESCOIN!!!

Worse, coupled with this unwarranted fanfare is the scariest hallmark of Dotcom Mania, "technospeak."

If you're too young to remember (or just too ashamed to admit you got duped by it) in order to get financing aspiring dotcom companies would talk over investment bankers' and investors' heads with technical jargon.  Remember, the internet was relatively new technology and you could easily fool a Harvard MBA at a bulge bracket investment bank that you knew what you were talking about.

"If we increase the RAM on the baud information super highway, then the TCP protocol packets will be redirected to our mainframe servers, resulting in increased bandwidth and profit for our firewall.  And if you invest $1.5 billion in 'E-genuity' you'll get a 20% share of our firewall profits!"

In a very Dilbertian way you could almost also guarantee funding by uttering the phrase "I understand if you don't get this technology, because it's pretty complex and over most people's heads."  Bankers, investors, finance professionals and other incompetent egotists would trip over themselves to cut you a check to save their pride.

The same thing is happening in the crypto-currency market.  In a desperate attempt to differentiate themselves from already-established crypto-currencies increasingly petty, even pointless technological traits and characteristics are being added (and heralded) as a reason to give THAT cryptocurrency at $4 billion valuation and not Bitcoin.

"Double encryption, triple encryption, double blockchain technology."  I'll admit I don't know what that is and I don't care.  But I know it stinks to high heaven when you're desperately trying to tie blog posts, tweets or some other faux-commodity to a cryptocurrency to vainly give it "intrinsic value."  It's like I'm 24 all over again, they just happened to change the vocabulary this time.

The real question is: does all this mean the cryptocurrency market has no value?  And the answer is "no, of course not."  Just like Dotcom Mania there WERE companies that DEFINITELY had value and they are some of the largest and most successful companies today.  Amazon, Google, Betterment, not only do these companies have value unto themselves, but brick and mortar that are explicitly "dotcoms" inevitably incorporated digital/internet technology universally.  But like the dotcom market, it will only be a small minority of cryptocurrencies that have value today and will be around tomorrow.  The question is how to determine who these are?

While there's no way to predict this or guarantee one cryptocurrency that's around today will be around tomorrow, I came up with a final, albeit simple metric for my client.  The "We Accept Index" aka the number of Google search results of "We Accept Bitcoin" or "We Accept Dogecoin" etc.

Very simply "The We Accept Index" reconnects and measures the only thing that matters with a currency - whether it is accepted as such.  Whether you can use that currency to purchase ACTUAL TANGIBLE PHYSICAL THINGS IN THE REAL WORLD.  Whether other people deem it to have value.  And it is here we find out just how few cryptocurrencies have value.

In all honesty, only two, MAYBE four have value:

Ethereum, and
Dogecoin (and this was started on a lark!)

The remaining 99.7% of cryptocurrencies, in literal economic terms, have no value.

Thankfully, the entire cryptocurrency market is only $150 billion (today anyway) and does not present the threat to the economy the $6 trillion crash in dotcoms did.  You don't have to worry about this article tanking the cryptocurrency market and then next, the world economy.  But do be reasonable and rationale when it comes to "investing" in cryptocurrencies.  You are gambling on a market that is eerily similar and stable as Dotcoms in 1999.  If you must, invest in a diversified portfolio of them and do not cash in your 401k.  Even I own a full Bitcoin that I paid $800 for some years ago.

The only problem is I can't find the digital wallet and have completely forgotten how to access that @&%*ing Bitcoin.

Which is of course another drawback to cryptocurrencies.
Check out Aaron's other neato stuff below!
Asshole Consulting
YouTube Channel
Books by Aaron 
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Tuesday, October 10, 2017

Curse Free Episode #27 10-10-17

Must leftist politics infect EVERYTHING?
Childhood during the 80's.
Nyquil influenced dreams.
Boxing Ed Latimore.
"Meal penalty" and union stupidity.
Millennials can't hammer nails.
Millennials can't use analog clocks.
Late night talk shows pay for politics.


In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!

Direct MP3 link here.

Direct RSS feed here.

Monday, October 09, 2017

A Politics Free Childhood

In this pre-release excerpt from the upcoming podcast I ask the democrats and socialists of the world if it is possible to NOT put politics, SJWing, and virtue signaling into EVERYTHING, especially kids' childhoods.

Aim for Sanity

I was on The Hanging Chads Podcast where among many other things we talked about how, in an insane world, one's primary goal should be to attain sanity, serenity, and peace.  Below is an excerpt if you just want to sample it.

They also interviewed Rollo Tomassi and were "thiiiiiisssss close" to interviewing Jenna Jameson.  They are better than the average podcast and I would strongly recommend giving them a shot.

Link to their podcast page here.

Link to the specific episode here.

Who's the Worst Generation? Baby Boomers, Gen X'ers or Millennials

Are per a request from Asshole Consulting, Cappy tries to apply some kind of logical methodology to an impossible question:  which generation is the worst in America today?  Though Cappy's loathing for the Baby Boomers is no secret, he loathes them all quite equally, but when you look at some data and public behavior a clear "victor" emerges.

Sunday, October 08, 2017

You May Love the Captain

By doing all your online shopping through Cappy's Amazon link

Cappy makes a 7% commission on all purchases and it costs you nothing extra.

Just a way to make the Captain's day by doing all your online shopping here.


You may follow me on The Twitter here.

You may purchase the book "Worthless" here so you may avoid becoming your typical ditzy teacher.

Saturday, October 07, 2017

The Economic Case for Price Gouging: The Safety Doc Podcast

Dr. Perrodin, aka "The Safety Doc" has a podcast about all things safety.  However, this particular episode about price gouging during natural disasters might prove to be some decent weekend listening pleasure should you be out doing yard work, going for a run, or just viewing the fall leaves.

Friday, October 06, 2017

Islamic Finance and Economics

I had an interesting request at Asshole Consulting.  The client wanted my opinion on Islamic finance and economics.  The economics part was interesting because there is (what I believe) to be a politically/religiously motivated force on the part of Muslims to use "economics" as a means to spread Islam.  The handful of Muslim scholars/economists who advocate "Islamic economics" have used the financial crisis as a means to leverage Islam into economics, claiming western/capitalistic economics has failed, but communism has also failed, thus giving rise to demand for a "third alternative."  In the video I analyze their claims of this "Islamic economics" and then also explain how capitalism is the only real economic system out there as it is inherent to human nature.

The second part is on Islamic finance which is actually interesting and there are some lessons westerners/non-muslims can learn from it.  These lessons include frugality, non-speculation, the avoidance of debt, and financing legitimate concerns, not pie in the sky poppycock.  And it also highlights how using religious principles leads to more conservative lending standards, which would have prevented western banks from needing a bail out. 

Of course, if banks merely had lending policies AND FOLLOWED THEM, then you wouldn't have a theocracy lecturing you on how to lend, but that is a debate for another time.

For the Aspiring Entrepreneurs in my Audience

I did an interview with David Barnett who is a sponsor of my show.  Yes, it is a commercial of sorts, but I wanted to get him on because (not only did he pay me), but there are many of you who are aspiring entrepreneurs and you may be looking to entrepreneurship as a means of retirement.  Also, most of you are aware of the overvalued stock market and purchasing or investing in small, privately held companies (as opposed to large, publicly traded ones) may provide higher returns.

I certainly plug his services, but 90% of the interview is good do's and don't's in the world of purchasing a small business.  There's also some interesting anecdotes and stories that teach anybody about the risks of purchasing a business and entrepreneurship.  Regardless, consider visiting David and checking out his videos to get a sample of what he offers.

Thursday, October 05, 2017

Episode #213 of The Clarey Podcast - ANGRY FEMINIST LIBRARIAN SPECIAL!

The USS Cappy is back to ship shape.
Why social workers are the true vampires of the world.
What girls can learn from angry feminists.
You just NEVER invest in California.  EVER.

and MORE!!!

In THIS EPISODE of The Clarey Podcast!

Direct MP3 link here.

RSS feed here.

Wednesday, October 04, 2017

Outsource Your Kids!

"By all means. Breed, have kids, much like you "have an SUV." Outsource them to daycare like you do your SUV to the dealer. But when your kid has no attachment, loyalty, love, or respect for you, and is more than happy to ditch you off in a cheap government nursing home facility and NEVER visits you, I'd love to see the night-time advanced MBA course that solves that problem."

my latest piece at LinkedIn!

Tuesday, October 03, 2017

No, You Will Not Build Her Her Dream Home

As I age and see more of not only my generation of men, but other generations travel down the path of life, I have realized that 'being nice' and trying to provide everything for your wife leads to her being spoiled and entitled.  People (men included) if spoiled rotten will end up becoming spoiled rotten and so you need to ensure that everybody in the relationship faces, suffers, and endures what is required to support oneself.  Any shielding or subsidizing people from these hardships, even if out of love, results in a slow but inevitable entitlement that is hard to unlodge and unseat once cemented into their psyche.  This leads to, at minimum, strife and stress within the relationship, but more often divorce and an ending of the relationship. 

But there is another drawback to "happy wife, happy life."  And that is the financial ruination you will likely suffer if you try to provide for two people on the efforts of only one.  I suggest reading this story before you boys start thinking about "buying your dream home" and before you ladies start thinking of forcing your husband to do the same.

The Day is Coming Ladies!

When you want to get serious about this life thing, contact me here instead of listening to Oprah, leftist, feminist slop.