Rantings and tirades of a frustrated economist.
everything will be fine until someone loses their job, and can't make the payment. Or, their ARM swings and bitchslaps them into a 10.5% APR. Yeahh, that's the ticket.I work in real=estate/mortgages, and it never ceases to amaze me, how many people are taking full-cash-out refis on homes they bought 6 months or a year ago. I mean, like someone who purchases a home in January for 300,000 and refis in July for 315,000.I'll tell you what- the repo business, the mortgage foreclosure business - they are about to experience a golden age.
Now it's finally getting press. Here in SoCAL the houses are on the market longer and prices being lowered too. Those who could afford have bought. Those who couldn't but want to now have via risky loans. Nothing to perturb yet, but already unraveling some.The homeowner (most who own little of it actually) are tapping their inflated "equity" enlarging their debt. Tapped out with consumer spending as car payments and credit cards, they live month to month.Simply slowing down real estate movement and apprecialtion affects half the new jobs in recent years being real estate related.Unemployment goes up. Consumer spending down. The retail economy including China's outlet store, I mean WalMart, sufferes. More job losses.Forclosures and bankruptcies go up. The economy is in a downward spiral. Rates go up. Stock market down. Real estate plumments.Of course I have left out Asians balking at absorbing our federal deficit spending forcing higher interest rates. Another terrorist attack on our soil to frighten the sheep. An oil crunch given production and refining is maxed out worldwide and the oil is in mainly hostile places. Not to mention another natural disaster. Or a deadly pandemic.WIll it be US 1970's? Japan 1990's? US 1930's? Germany 1930's?Welcome to the future...
Doinkicarus - I looked into publicly traded repo firms. Unfortunately there are none. Would have a been a golden hedge.Mad Doctor - Always good to hear a doctorate resonate what I'm thinking. THat's why I invest in Chinese Yuan.Yes the Yuan!Is your country full of lazy people that want to have everything for free? Then invest in a country where people live in the real world. Yes, China!"China, We're Not Just Communists Anymore"
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